Trend Alerts

Trend Alert: How Low Will Gold Go? How High Will it Rise?

TREND ALERT®
How Low Will Gold Go? How High Will it Rise?

KINGSTON, NY, 11 September 2019 — Since gold hit a six-year high on 4 September, it has fallen over $60 per ounce. How low will gold go? How high will it rise?

Now trading in the high $1,490s per ounce range, the word on the Street is that gold prices moved lower because positive U.S./China trade negotiations are at hand, equity markets are moving higher, bond yields are rising, and Middle East tensions are easing.

All of the above are factors that pushed down gold prices will not only reverse, some will worsen.

I forecast U.S./China trade relations will long term deteriorate rather than improve. And as recent data shows, despite its yuan moving lower, China’s exports again declined last month as the world’s #2 economy continues its down trend.

The global equity market rise is temporary, boosted by over 30 central banks lowering interest rates this year, thus injecting more monetary methadone to keep the addicted Bull running.

And, the more cheap money being pumped into the system, the lower bond yields will fall. 

Middle East tensions will continue to increase as detailed in our Trends Journal and Trends in The News video podcasts. 

The key driver behind rising gold prices is the global flood of cheap money being injected into the economic system.

Indeed, today President Trump continued his attacks on the Fed’s interest rate policy, blaming them for slowing down the U.S. economy. He tweeted: “The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term.” 

And once again, as it happened before, negative/zero interest rate policy, quantitative easing bond buying, lowering reserve requirement ratios – plus new rounds of fiscal stimulus from nations across the globe and whatever new cheap-money-injection schemes central banksters will invent – are fundamentals that will push gold prices higher.

TREND FORECAST: The Gold Bull Run will continue to run. 

How fast it runs depends on how much cheap money – and how quickly – the central banksters inject into the economic/financial system.

Tomorrow, the European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates further into negative territory and announce more quantitative easing policy. Thus, how low interest rates go and how much QE is injected will affect how fast gold prices rise. 

And next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut U.S. interest rates by 0.25 percent … unless the latest pressure from President Trump pushes The Fed to lower rates 0.50 basis points. 

I maintain my years-long forecast that gold had to break strongly above $1,450 ounce, which it now has following my 6 June Trend Alert, "The Gold Bull Run," for it to spike toward the $2,000 range and above.

I also maintain the downside gold risk is at the $1,390 per ounce level.

Comments

Submitted by Pharlap14 on Wed, 09/11/2019 - 15:58 Permalink

Trump is only interested in his second term presidential election hopes and will do what it takes to try and show that the economy is booming. But it seems as though Powell has second thoughts about that as is not listening to the president.

Gold could go down more but only for a little while as it did consistently during the subprime crisis with 9 to 15% drops in sometimes a month before rocketing up again. 

Anyway, this 60$ drop is an excuse for profit taking as gold went up a lot in the last three months. It happens in gold as it does in the stock market. No difference !