GOLD: Follow the trends

The Trends Journal has consistently and accurately forecast the price of gold based on global economic and equity market trends. Here are some examples from just this year to show how we were ahead of news and on top of the trend.

3 JANUARY 2019

"These worsening economic trend lines could compel the Federal Reserve to not only slow interest hikes, but even cut rates this year. While it would temporarily boost equities again it would lower the value of U.S. currency and weigh favorably on the price of the gold.

Thus, we maintain our forecast that gold remains the ultimate safe haven asset. We had forecast that prices would bottom out at around $1,200 per ounce. They have and now gold is flirting at $1,300 per ounce. When gold solidifies above $1,450 per ounce, we forecast a sharp spike toward $2,000 an ounce."

16 JANUARY 2019

"Exploding global debt, declining economic growth and geopolitical instability – especially in the Middle East and our forecast for the U.S., Brazil and other Lima Group nations to overthrow the government of Venezuela – will push gold prices higher.

Moreover, gold prices will stabilize above the $1,200 range as a matter of supply and demand. All the gold ever mined could fit in a 60-foot cube and discoveries of gold have dramatically tapered off over the last decade and no new discoveries were made since 2017.

Thus, we maintain our forecast that gold's downside is $1,200 per ounce, which has proven accurate, and that gold would have to break above $1,450 per ounce to leap back to the $2,000 range it neared in 2011."

31 January 2019

"With all signs pointing to central bank intervention to boost equity markets and economies with increased flows of cheap money, plus exploding global debt, declining economic growth and geo-political instability, we forecast gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, will trend higher.

Currently gold is hovering around $1,320 per ounce. We maintain our forecast that gold will have to break above $1,450 per ounce to leap back to the $2,000 range it neared in 2011."


"As evidenced by the building social unrest in Europe, wars and riots throughout Africa, escalating Middle East tensions, the mounting South American migrant crisis and the brewing U.S.-led Venezuelan coup d'etat, there are any number of wild card triggers and black swan events that will crash equity markets and economies worldwide.

In an atmosphere of such instability, demand for gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, will dramatically increase."

6 MARCH 2019

"In the lead up to U.S. 2020 presidential elections, should the economy dramatically slow and/or markets sink, the Fed will aggressively lower interest rates.

Absent a black swan geopolitical/economic event, gold will be confined to the tight trading range of the past 6 years.

Real Estate markets will remain stable in the U.S. and many nations as central banks lower rates to boost demand.

On the equity market front, again, minus a wild card event, we forecast modest growth with occasional sharp downturns."

6 JUNE 2019

"In an effort to artificially stimulate equities and economies with monetary methadone, nations will in effect devalue their currencies, thus pushing investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold.

As we have long noted, gold must first pierce the $1,385 an ounce mark to hit the $1,450 break out point, which will then spike gold prices above their 2011 highs."



Submitted by Peter Tocci on Sat, 07/13/2019 - 14:01 Permalink

"In an atmosphere of such instability, demand for gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, will dramatically increase." I respectfully disagree that gold is the "ultimate safe haven." It's a RELATIVE haven within the arguably insane game of capitalism, Conehead consumerism, and equity & commodity markets. Insane is defend here as (conditioned) behavior that is self-destructive and ultimately suicidal. The system is suicidal whether or not it crashes before it crashes the planet. Please also note that the atmospheres of instability are no accident, but are Elite manipulations or the results of them. Terrorism, for example. The following remarks were posted as comment on a Trend Alert sent around on 6 June 2019: Rather then reinvent the wheel, I'll just post it again: "I suggest the whole economic system is a giant brainwash/con, with instability built in, so that it can be shaken almost at will to create transfers of wealth. Not to mention that a citizenry facing threat and upheaval is much easier to manipulate and control. "Of wealth transfer, witness the 1929 crash and Depression, willfully caused by Wall Street and the innate crime that is the Elite's death grip on nations and people: Private/central banking/interest bearing debt (politely called the Fed). Others have pointed out what is said here: "I am afraid the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that the banks can and do create money. And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of Governments and hold in the hollow of their hand the destiny of the people." -- Reginald McKenna, British Chancellor of the Exchequer as Chairman of the Midland Bank, addressing stockholders in 1924 That is, for the most part, if we had no debt, there would be no money :-) "Another great con, which ties into what planismenos says, is that institutionalized government per se, is an anti-tribal, patriarchal Elite construct for mass herding and control. Anti-tribal means easily infiltrated by Elite operatives - traitors posing as patriots. Just so, Capitalism and Socialism/Communism are constructs in which the Elite function perfectly well, as they do in any form of institutionalized government. (Be it known that Elite-servant Wall Street financed the Bolshevik Revolution?) [[Added for current issue: And also the Third Reich.]] "It’s not difficult to make the case that what’s been done to the planet to bring Western ‘Civilization’ to where it is today is solid proof that where we are is not a good place to be. And pursuit of gold has played no small part. [[Added for current issue: Most mining operations (extractivism) are massively destructive and toxic. On average, the gold in a plain wedding band costs 20 tons of toxic mine waste, merely environmentally dumped. So I suggest that gold and all 'precious' metals (a grand psyop) dealers and hoarders be required to be responsible for and receive the waste as well. Maybe have it dumped on their front lawn :-) "We rarely see societal developments and conventions that shape our way of life as examples of insanity that has been ‘normalized’ — symptoms of the ‘Idiotized Society’: Conditioned dependence for prosperity and even survival upon self-destructive and suicidal ways and means. A grand oxymoron. "'Only by the most outrageous violation of ourselves do we come into conformity with a society bent on its own destruction.' - R.D. Laing "'It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.' - Krishnamurti "Maybe we need to consider that we're so far down the wrong road, not just politically and governmentally, but in our fundamental beliefs and sense of reality—who and what we are— population levels, and overall way of life, that attempting to rescue society - government, economics, finance, education, business, etc - prior to a remarkable evolution in mass consciousness will be like trying to fix a watch with a pipe wrench. "Preventing spiritual growth is a primary goal of the manipulators. What they fear most is widespread realization that the reality they've been selling and nurturing puts us on death row in a (now wireless) mind-prison—even when it has appeared to work properly and been entertaining. "For success/prosperity to become universal safely, it would have to take on new meaning, centered upon harmony with Nature, not hoarding what is called wealth. In other words, society would have to become sane, or at least behave so. A simpler, slower, more harmonious and Earth-loving, less techno-addicted and dependent, less self-obsessed, more agriculturally based (organic), and cottage-industry way of life is strongly indicated. Sustainable being, not ‘sustainable development,’ a psyop of the manipulators to maintain Earth-sacrifice for wealth, power and control. (Sorry for the length)." Bottom line: What gold does or does not do will be virtually irrelevant when the real crunch comes that the pathological, avarice-driven system is hurtling toward. When that day comes, I'd rather have a cellar full of superfoods than a warehouse full of gold. Or any item of psyop/fiat value, such as 'precious' metals, stones and so on.