Disgust and outrage

In our spring 2015 Trends Journal, two months before Donald Trump, a bona fide reality-show champion, became a contestant in The Presidential Reality Show™, we forecast Hillary Clinton would win the race for the White House. In part, we wrote:

“If the election were held today, and Hillary Clinton survives the cash-for-influence scandal, we forecast Clinton as the winner. On issues of gay rights, women’s rights and abortion, Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina and Huckabee will find weak support among a sizable portion of women voters.

“With all the candidates, including Clinton, on the same war page and none presenting strong and unique economic policies to truly create jobs and increase wages, what separates Clinton from the guys is the girls.” (“Chelsea Clinton: Female president will make a ‘substantive difference’,” USA Today, April 10, 2015.)”

In subsequent Trends in the News broadcasts and Trend Alerts, we also forecast that Clinton’s Democratic challenger, Bernie Sanders, who ran a much better-than-expected race but will not get the nomination, would be Clinton’s vice-presidential running mate. We noted that “Sanders has succeeded in attracting die-hard Democratic liberals, the financially desperate and deeply indebted millennial voters back into the party fold.” Thus, with Clinton getting 270,000 fewer votes in this election compared to her 2008 run during the same period, Sanders as a running mate would serve to increase Democratic voter turnout in November while countering Clinton’s 56 percent negative-personality rating and her pro-war policies.

While Sanders gained support by casting Wall Street as America’s Public Enemy No. 1 and Clinton as a major benefactor, and it became statistically clear he would not receive enough delegates to secure the nomination, it has been widely reported that Sanders has eased up on attacking Clinton’s Wall Street connections. Instead, Sanders has focused stump speeches on berating the leader of the Republican political pack, Donald Trump.

PLAYING THE “WOMEN’S CARD”

In a race against Trump, initially we believed Clinton’s victory was sealed when Trump, already suffering “women problems” in the polls, sunk 73 percent into negative territory when he said a woman should be subject to “some form of punishment” if she had an abortion and they were illegal. And, as we noted at the onset of the Democratic campaign last September, when Clinton’s daughter Chelsea championed the belief that a female president would make a “substantive difference,” the Clinton plan was to be gender-focused.

However, considering the Trump strategy to attack Hillary Clinton for playing the “women’s card,” questioning her “strength and stamina,” and portraying her as an enabler of her husband’s sexual exploits, he has, in effect, brought her pivot gender issue to the fore as he seeks to minimize its importance months before they face off as their party’s nominees.

Celebrating his sweeping victories in five primaries at the end of April, Trump mocked Clinton for lacking the credentials to make a White House run. “Frankly, if Hillary Clinton were a man, I don’t think she’d get 5 percent of the vote. The only thing she’s got going is the women’s card… And the beautiful thing is, women don’t like her.”

Trump ramped up the attack on Clinton’s credentials and her playing the “women’s card” two days later on The Today Show. “Without the women’s card, Hillary would not even be a viable person to even run for city council positions. I think the only thing she has going for her is the fact that she’s a woman,” Trump said. “She has done a terrible job in so many ways.”

Later in the week, on Fox News Sunday, Trump again escalated the gender-issue attack saying, “Even women don’t like her. They don’t like her. But it is the women’s card, and she plays it, and I’ll let you know in about six months if she plays it well, but I don’t think she’ll play it well. It’s true. If she were not a woman, she wouldn’t even be in this race.”

TRUMP OUT-CLINTONS CLINTON

Again, as we stated last year, months before Trump became a contestant in The Presidential Reality Show, “what separates Clinton from the guys is the girls.” After she was attacked by him for her playing the “women’s card,” Clinton responded: “The other day, Mr. Trump accused me of playing the, quote, ‘woman card’,” Clinton said. “Well, if fighting for women’s health care and paid family leave and equal pay is playing the woman card, then deal me in.”

By dealing herself into Trump’s hand by doubling-down on the “woman card,” Clinton, while reinforcing support among her core base, has, in effect, abandoned the famous slogan and centerpiece strategy of her husband Bill’s 1992 race for the White House: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Indeed, according to a CNN/ORC poll released May 4, the critical issue for nine out of 10 voters is not gender, race, creed or color… “It’s the economy, stupid.” As we have continually documented in our publications and broadcasts since the onset of the Panic of ’08, the data prove and the polls confirm the wage, lifestyles and the spirit of the average Americans are down in the dumps and continue to decline … while their resentment of the 1 percent, who have gotten much richer as the equity markets soared, intensifies.

Thus, while billionaire Trump trumpets promises of restoring jobs and to “Make America Great Again,” not only has he out-Clintoned Clinton by playing the “It’s the economy, stupid” card she has dropped… when it comes to bringing back jobs to America, it is Bill Clinton, President Obama and Hillary Clinton that Trump has blamed for sending them abroad: “It’s NAFTA, the Transpacific Partnership and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, stupid.”

Therefore, despite Clinton leading Trump by 13 percentage points nationally according to the CNN/ORC poll, when the race for the White House heats up this summer, Trump has a clear shot of beating Clinton, since we forecast an economy of more of the same… but much worse for the shrinking middle and growing lower classes. While Clinton will clearly win the women’s vote, when it comes to an electoral process, Trump, the uncontested reality-show champion with a proven track record of playing to the public, has chartered a path to victory.

TREND FORECAST: Barring an ongoing barrage of self-inflicted wounds, despite his bluster, missteps, misquotes and numerous distortions of truth and facts (http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/statements), and despite the general media/political consensus that he has no chance of winning, we contend Trump is an odds-on favorite at this time.

And as we continually stress and clearly state, while we can forecast trends, no one can predict the future. There are too many wild cards — and the Trump card does not get wilder.

In addition, a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows some 56 percent of Trump and Clinton supporters — the highest share in recent history — say their vote is intended more to oppose the other contender than to support their favored candidate. Thus, considering both candidates are burdened with high negative ratings, and Americans are highly dissatisfied with the two-party system’s congressional performance, there is still time for a third-party candidate to become a serious contender in The Presidential Reality Show™.   TJ

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Comments

Submitted by stuey on Thu, 05/12/2016 - 12:16 Permalink
Hitlery may have a problem holding office as a DogCatcher, let alone occupying the Oval Office even as the official Cigar Cleaner... Title 18 section 2071 (a) Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both. (b) Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.
Submitted by smkeeley on Thu, 05/12/2016 - 13:29 Permalink
The thing about Trump is that, like him or hate him, everyone knows the guy. He's been in the tabloids, he's dealt with bankruptcy, he's been married three time and everyone knows his dirty laundry and he doesn't really hide anything. Evreryone knows the msm is Clinton biased. Everyone knows the Republicans hate him which is a big plus because the Republicans have proven time and time again that they're screwing us just as bad as the Dems; they just do it a little slower. Honestly, I think hillary doesnt have a snow balls chance in Hell against Trump. She's as crooked as a barrel of snakes and I'd like to see her and her cheap, empty suited husband deported to some deserted island.
Submitted by robertzraick on Thu, 05/12/2016 - 14:58 Permalink
I am happy to see that we are in agreement as to our prediction of the 2016 Presidential election. Personally I have correctly predicted every twist and turn in this election cycle. Knowing that you are completely non partisan, I was curious to see if your conclusions were in alignment with mine. There are several factors which are very significant. Bit the most powerful are these: Many people think that this is just another typical election cycle and want to apply comparisons from the past on this atypical election. They are going to miss the mark by doing this. There is a denial by the entrenched as to the amount and strength of the justified anger of the voters who have been betrayed time and again by the politicians in power. But the biggest factor of all is the loss of credibility of the entrenched criminal politicians, the corrupt banksters and the wall street mob, and the presstitutes in the MSM. Because they have lost credibility, none of their standard manipulations are working. Fewer believe their propaganda, many question their poll numbers, and they have crossed a threshold where they have lied so much in the past, that no one will believe them even if they desperately try to tell the truth for a change. They are a one trick pony and the one trick does not work any more. And there is nothing they can do to fix it. They can not go back in time and change what they have already done. The word toast comes to mind. It is the reason that every attack against Trump backfires. With out a doubt, this is the most interesting election cycle I have seen in my 70 years. No one can know the future, but my prediction is that it will be a battle between Trump and Clinton. I predict Trump will win, not in a landslide, but in an avalanche.
Submitted by mark@pulsendt.co.uk on Thu, 05/12/2016 - 16:31 Permalink
I live in Sheffield in the UK and saw a guy wearing a Trump T-shirt in the local supermarket! This was the most bizarre thing as people don't really do the whole t-shirt and baseball cap thing in the UK, it's a lot more subtle, a lot of people are quite secretive about how they vote. But to me it just shows how Trump has captured how people feel in 2016. We're constantly being told that immigration is good, world trade is good, war is good when all around you can see the living standards of many people deteriorating. People have just had enough and are looking for an alternative and in Trump they see that alternative choice.
Submitted by MTAN_1 on Fri, 05/13/2016 - 23:35 Permalink
Stick to your first thought; the plan is to have a third party...a "likeable Republican" that will hand over the White House to Hillary - she is the SELECTION and they are selected, not elected. In other words, someone will run, that is bought and paid for and will take votes from Trump and not Hildebeast, thus putting Pedohile Bill as the First "man-boy". Take that to the bank, for as Mark Twain said "If voting made a difference, then they wouldn't let us do it". - end
Submitted by KevinBeck on Sun, 05/15/2016 - 10:46 Permalink
Not only is Killary unqualified to be elected to any city council, she is also unqualified to even reach the status of dog catcher. If there is a "War on Women" going on, it's Killary's war against Bill's women. She has only one factor that enables her to even consider running for President, and that's the fact that her married name is Clinton.
Submitted by tjlupton@yahoo.com on Wed, 05/18/2016 - 15:00 Permalink
No one mentions this, but I think it is really significant - Hillary Clinton served on the board of directors of Walmart for 6 years. A company that is anti-union, out-sources everything it can to China, locks it's employees in the building at night, and has driven small mom and pop businesses into bankruptcy all across America. She did not ever try to change Walmart's business model while she was in this high powered position. Now we are to believe that she cares about the little guy.
Submitted by tjlupton@yahoo.com on Sat, 07/16/2016 - 09:59 Permalink
Beware of Trump. His vice-presidential candidate selection tells us that he is cozying up to the Koch Brothers. The Koch Brothers have a warped view libertarianism which takes the view that anything that is good for the masses is an evil. Thing the current trajectory of government but on steroids.