RETAIL APOCALYPSE

Further pushing commercial real estate prices sharply lower is the brick-and-mortar retail devastation, which was a trend prior to the COVID panic.

The retail industry shed two million jobs in April and more than 100,000 stores are expected to go out of business over the next five years, according to an analysis by investment bank UBS.

By 2026, the number of brick-and-mortar retail outlets in the U.S. will fall from last year’s 883,000 to 782,000, the analysis concluded.

That would more than triple the 28,455 retail closures that took place during the Great Recession.

Through 2025, e-commerce will grow from 15 percent of retail sales in 2019 to 25 percent, UBS estimates.

The shift will squeeze brick-and-mortar stores’ profits even more than Amazon and online commerce has already, keeping the wave of mass closures moving through the industry.

This month, retail chains J.Crew Group, Neiman Marcus, and Stage Stores sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy; as long expected, the 846-store J.C. Penney chain filed for Chapter 11 on 15 May.

There is a 50-percent chance that 19 retail chains now in the S&P 500 index will default on their debts, estimates Sarah Wyeth, retail and restaurant analyst for S&P Global Ratings. Only five defaulted during the Great Recession.

About three-quarters of retail chains tracked by S&P had their debt rated as junk even before the pandemic began.

“If this isn’t the retail apocalypse, I don’t know would be,” she said.

Indeed, today, Walmart sales soared and Home Depot’s rose 7 percent as people stockpile groceries and do home improvement on lockdown. But Kohl’s department store, forced to close it stores in March and with people not buying many retail items such as clothing, saw its revenue collapse 44 percent.

And with people having to wear masks and have their temperatures checked, as required to enter Apple stores, more shoppers will be encouraged to shop online rather than be subjected to “New ABnormal” retail rules.

Therefore, more retail sector brick-and mortar-stores will be going dark.

TRENDPOST: While local/hometown special retail in upscale markets will survive, the trend to online purchases will continue to hit retail outlets, big and small.

According to OptinMonster, online shopping is growing so fast that the global online shopping market size is predicted to hit $4 trillion in 2020. The U.S. alone is expecting to have 300 million online shoppers in 2023. That’s 91 percent of the entire country’s population!

So far, 69 percent of Americans have shopped online, and 25 percent of Americans shop online at least once per month.

As per data from research and polling firm Nielsen and Rakuten Intelligence,
U.S. online sales of consumer packaged goods (grocery items) increased by 56 percent in the week ending 18 April compared to a year earlier.

4 Comments
  1. Jay Jericho 2 weeks ago

    MK Ultra bug eyes Jeff Bezos must be salivating and licking his lips reading this Trends Journal article. This is a concern as America is a net importer consumer driven economy as opposed to a manufacturing one. Thanks for this update.

  2. Johnny Almonte 2 weeks ago

    Youre awlays on point Mr Celente and team

  3. Eric Swan 1 week ago

    Perhaps this will force people to think for themselves more when retailers can’t provide stuff. Amazon is even having trouble with all their orders. They bit off more than they can chew.3 orders are really late i haven’t gotten. Bozos employees are revolting. maybe ill take a short position in amzn LOL.

  4. Rodney Hoff 1 week ago

    I am amazed how easily sheeple follow such ridiculous rules, and even go along with this Socilaism Distancing, if i see a que waiting all at 6 foot or more apart, no talking!…. to get into one of the stores ALLOWED to be open I pass on,
    Why are business owners going along with this FARCE as proven over and over now., they cannot imprison everyone ,also IF it went to court it wouldn’t hold up either.
    And as for the Satasi POOlice now, these silly little brownshirts who love the power over others, just wait till this is over, they will be remembered, what must their families (assuming they have one) think of them.

    But its sad to see so many not capable of researching for themselves and actually listen to the MSM Propaganda and and the GOOgles Farcebook Boobtube and insanagram, but they stand looking down at their mind numbing phone, which is going to be the end of their freedoms and used against them, but they dont see it… ..

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