MORE ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT LINES

OECD WARNS OF SECOND LOCKDOWN’S DANGERS. Mirroring what we have long forecast, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned of a second worldwide economic shutdown if the COVID virus resurges would do severe damage to a global economy already reeling.

The world’s GDP will contract by 6 percent this year if no new lockdowns are imposed, the OECD predicted in a 10 June report.

The 6-percent forecast is double the contraction predicted in April by the International Monetary Fund.

If the virus recurs later this year and shutdowns are re-imposed, the world’s economy will then shrink by 7.8 percent, the report said.

The world’s economy will grow by 5.2 percent in 2021, the OECD calculated, or by only 2.8 percent if there is a second COVID wave.

For the U.S. GDP, the OECD expects a 7.3-percent shrinkage this year, bouncing back 4.1 percent in 2021. If the virus returns, the loss will be 8.5 percent this year, followed by only a 1.9-percent rebound next year.

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office forecast in early June that the U.S. economy would lose 5.6 percent this year.

The scale of damage to the world’s economy that a second lockdown would create must be avoided, meaning that families, workers, and businesses will have to “live with” the virus until a vaccine is found, said Laurence Boone, the OECD’s chief economist.

SAUDI ARABIA TO REGAIN DOMINANCE OVER WORLD OIL MARKET. Saudi Arabia’s share of the global oil market will grow from 11.6 percent today to 15 percent by 2025, its highest share in almost 40 years, according to an analysis by JPMorgan Chase.

OPEC, in which Saudi Arabia is the principal partner, will sell 40 percent of the world’s oil by 2025, up from about 33 percent now and passing its 39-percent peak share set in 2016, the analysis concluded.

The oil market’s global collapse is slashing budgets for exploration for new reserves, ongoing development of existing fields, and driving hundreds of small producers out of business.

As demand returns, Saudi Arabia and many of its OPEC partners will be able to simply pump more cheap oil and fill gaps in supply.

The bank’s analysis holds little hope for U.S. shale production to rival OPEC’s output. The report sees American shale producers pumping 11 million barrels a day in 2030, compared to 10.9 million now.

Worldwide spending on oil and gas exploration and development will total about $383 billion this year, a 15-year low and 29 percent lower than in 2019, according to Rystad Energy, an analysis firm.

The loss of new investment sets the stage for tighter supplies in the future, a situation Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners can leverage to grab a larger market share.

Today’s meager investments in exploration and production could “reduce the previously-expected level of supply in 2025 by almost nine million barrels a day, creating a clear risk of tighter markets if demand starts to move back towards its pre-crisis trajectory,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a May report.

AIRLINES WILL LOSE $84 BILLION THIS YEAR. Airline passengers will number 55 percent fewer this year than last, leading the world’s airlines to lose $84 billion in 2020, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Carriers will run a collective deficit of $16 billion next year and the global economic shutdown will cost the industry about 32 million jobs, the association predicted.

The numbers would have been worse if governments had not bailed out airlines, including the U.S.’s $25 billion in grants and loans.

By 2021, about 80 percent of city-to-city routes will be restored, the association predicted.

 

4 Comments
  1. HandsFree 2 months ago

    Let us have volcano – nice big one go off, a blessing in away: It would really put lives importance back into prospective. All this numbers game when it is a rigged system, with liars, thieves and assassins in charge

  2. Peter Tocci 2 months ago

    This crash is not meant to restore the old order, but to usher in one of Orwellian-on-steroids stature that includes a global surveillance state and direct human-control system coming in the technosphere — only secondarily geopolitically. There will be, as in the planned Great Depression and other busts, an enormous transfer of wealth.

    Trends has carefully deleted several article of mine, but one remains (not my fave) as an example of past awareness now hushed. Wireless technology is the foundation of the surveiallance/control system, which, if we don’t quit, nothing else we do will matter. https://trendsresearch.com/beyond-your-health-5g-wireless-technology-destroys-jobs-environments-liberties/ See also the section “The Real Reason for the Wireless “Season”? in “Wireless Technology: Ultra Convenient. Endlessly Entertaining. Criminally Instigated. Terminally Pathological.” https://www.activistpost.com/2019/02/wireless-technology-ultra-convenient-endlessly-entertaining-criminally-instigated-terminally-pathological.html

    The crash, long planned and coming anyway, can now be blamed on a scapegoat “necessity” called COVID-19(84) lockdown. https://www.activistpost.com/2020/06/problem-reaction-solution-how-covid-19-leads-to-global-governance-complete-control.html Gerald merely touches on this aspect, while naively (or slyly?) blaming politicians and the media for what is an operation of the global financial elite. The .00000001%

    Handmaidens of the Elite (as creations thereof): Wall St, banks, corporate monolith, militaries, media, international intelligence community, protective Government agencies and more – all infiltrated. See Antony Sutton, “America’s Secret Establishment.” Kevin Phillips, “American Dynasty” (Bush clan).

    Mr Celente/Trends also speaks of peace and justice, but always omits the fact that our way of life driving the economy, which is his lifeblood of his reporting, is completely incompatible with same. Because the US doesn’t have within its borders the hard resources to provide for this toxic, preposterously extravagant indulgence, the military has from the beginning been engaged all over the planet in paving the way for the corporate rape and poisoning of the planet (extractivism) for control of such resources. https://www.azquotes.com/author/2273-Smedley_Butler

    This was foretold in Zbig Brzezinski’s “The Grand Chessboard,” wherein it says that he who controls the resources of “Eurasia” controls the world, which is exactly the wet dream of the 00000001% And what they have been using the USG to accomplish from the Founding forward. Here’s Wesley Clark telling of the ‘Pentagon’ plan to invade 7 countries in 5 years. He doesn’t say, of course, but motive is ultimately the same. Both China and Russia know this score.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RC1Mepk_Sw

    Of course, for these Elite psychopaths, whose royal and aristocratic bloodlines go back thousands of years, war need have no other motive than war. War, the Earth-eating/poisoning industrial sector, and “Conehead” consumerism confer ever more wealth and power upon the already wealthy and powerful (the former does not ‘mean’ the latter), ensuring their continued control of technomasturbating “civilization.”

    Nothing has changed fundamentally, as we see with Venezuela and Bolivia, the latter being eyed for its lithium while Congo is devastated for its cobalt – all to provide for the “low-carbon” but “high insanity” future, featuring massive increases in life-negative electromagnetic fields from wireless tech, the utter stupidity of EV’s, and all the rest of the shiny TOXnological future.

    Bottom line, as a manipulated and nurtured construct for advancing the Elite Agenda, the system itself is the problem – a corruption designed to be further corrupted, even as it provides “prosperity” (predicated on Earth-liquidation) and survival. Like conventional medicine needs disease to be needed and profitable, therefore curing nothing, Trends needs chaos to be needed so isn’t inclined to analyze fundamentals, but sticks with “Drama.”

    • katrinalewis 2 months ago

      Mr Tocci
      I do believe you are absolutely accurate and have highlighted something Mr Celente oft forgets in all the drama. Thanks for your insights

      Katrina Lewis

  3. roksteady 2 months ago

    Dear Mr C, would be very interested to hear your take on the impending collapse of Scotiabank, as detailed by Andrew Maguire and Chris Powell – epic stuff! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYiJ3kywz0

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