KINGSTON, NY, 30 MAY 2019—In our 27 March Trend Alert we forecast that a global economic slowdown and weakening corporate earnings in the U.S., coupled with the fading positive effects of President Donald Trump’s tax bill, would compel the U.S. Federal Reserve “to lower interest rates before economic conditions markedly deteriorate.”
The global and national economies are deteriorating. From Emerging markets to developed nations, equity markets are falling and the great corporate stock buy-back trend that dramatically boosted the U.S. stock markets is now slowing as corporations are buying back less of their stocks.
As evidenced by recent data, U.S. durable goods orders and capital spending have declined. A recent IHS Markit survey revealed a “notable slowdown” in the services sector while manufacturing fell to a 9-year low in May.