TREND ALERT: The Gold Bull Run

TREND ALERT®
The Gold Bull Run

KINGSTON, NY, 6 JUNE 2019—Back in 2005, when gold was $421 per ounce, we alerted Trends Journal subscribers to get ready to ride the “Golden Bull: Once gold breaks past the magic $500 per ounce mark… it will push gold beyond the 1980’s high of $885 per ounce."

On target, gold had a steady rise, peaking at $1,917 per ounce in 2011. Subsequently, when prices slumped to the mid $1,000 per ounce range in 2015, we had accurately forecast that prices bottomed out and that the next “Gold Bull Run” would begin when gold breaks above $1,450 per ounce.

Considering weakening economic fundamentals and how central banks will address them — from Australia cutting interest rates to new lows, to China inventing money pumping schemes to artificially inflate falling equities and its sagging economies with cheap money — that breakout point is on the near horizon.

GLOBAL RECESSION

In the U.S., despite relatively strong economic data, bond markets are signaling a sharp slowdown. With the 10-year Treasury down well below yields on the three-month Treasury, the inverted yield curve has preceded both interest rate cuts and recession.

Indeed, in our 27 March Trend Alert we warned, “Fed Can’t Wait: Must Move Now.” With negative economic data rolling in from nations across the globe, on 30 May, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the Fed was “very attuned” to those indicators and that it would consider “accommodative” monetary policy.

On 3 June, James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed, citing a global economic slowdown, low inflation and trade war risks, said lower interest rates might be “warranted soon.”

The next day Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the Fed would cut rates if economic conditions worsened.

And worsening they are. U.S. manufacturing output has fallen for three of the last four months, reflecting the demand for products is weakening. On the employment front, ADP reported that only 27,000 new jobs were created in May, the fewest since March 2010.

This week Morgan Stanley warned of a “litany of downside risks we see for markets.” Indeed, Stock ETFs shed a record $20 billion in May. Fearing deteriorating economic conditions, U.S. junk bonds suffered $6.5 billion in outflows.

On the Emerging Markets front, for five consecutive weeks, investors have been pulling funds from EM stocks, totaling $7.8 billion in outflows.

WEAK NUMBERS

The eurozone’s Purchasing Managers Index hit a two-month low in May, dropping to 47.7. Below 50 indicates contraction.

In China, manufacturing productivity fell to a 10-year low, driving its PMI down to 49.4 from 50.1.

From Brazil to South Africa, nations are slumping in recession. The World Bank warned of “a deepening slowdown in global trade, and sluggish investment in emerging and developing economies.”

TREND FORECAST: In an effort to artificially stimulate equities and economies with monetary methadone, nations will in effect devalue their currencies, thus pushing investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold.

As we have long noted, gold must first pierce the $1,385 an ounce mark to hit the $1,450 break out point, which will then spike gold prices above their 2011 highs.

Comments

Submitted by planismenos on Thu, 06/06/2019 - 13:13 Permalink
So many aspects of modern societies are unsustainable (ecological, energy, non-recyclable packaging, etc). But especially the social structure of 'work'. Both Capitalism and Socialism/Communism have major flaws, so neither is a panacea. Perhaps a 'tribal' or local community model is needed where cyclical laying off of workers (also known as human beings!) is cushioned by neighborhood self-sufficiencies in food production, affordable (paid off) housing, water, electricity, etc; ie., the 'basics' for survival. This would 'crisis-proof' a society where laid off families could Weather the storm and not end up homeless or bankrupt. They could do the dishes in the neighborhood dining hall or weed the garden until they find a job? Co-housing model? (Sort of the NT Biblical model of the 'Acts of the Apostles' where we find basically, 'voluntary socialism'. This latter is important: Socialism is a good idea if not forced by government, but freely chosen by people of good conscience.
Submitted by Peter Tocci on Thu, 06/06/2019 - 17:43 Permalink
Very wise words from planismenos (with a reservation or two :-) I suggest the whole economic system is a giant brainwash/con, with instability built in, so that it can be shaken almost at will to create transfers of wealth. Not to mention that a citizenry facing threat and upheaval is much easier to manipulate and control. Of wealth transfer, witness the 1929 crash and Depression, willfully caused by Wall Street and the innate crime that is the Elite's death grip on nations and people: Private/central banking/interest bearing debt (politely called the Fed). Others have pointed out what is said here: "I am afraid the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that the banks can and do create money. And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of Governments and hold in the hollow of their hand the destiny of the people." -- Reginald McKenna, British Chancellor of the Exchequer as Chairman of the Midland Bank, addressing stockholders in 1924 That is, for the most part, if we had no debt, there would be no money :-) Another great con, which ties into what planismenos says, is that institutionalized government per se, is an anti-tribal, patriarchal Elite construct for mass herding and control. Anti-tribal means easily infiltrated by Elite operatives - traitors posing as patriots. Just so, Capitalism and Socialism/Communism are constructs in which the Elite function perfectly well, as they do in any form of institutionalized government. (Be it known that Elite-servant Wall Street financed the Bolshevik Revolution?) It’s not difficult to make the case that what’s been done to the planet to bring Western ‘Civilization’ to where it is today is solid proof that where we are is not a good place to be. And pursuit of gold has played no small part. We rarely see societal developments and conventions that shape our way of life as examples of insanity that has been ‘normalized’ — symptoms of the ‘Idiotized Society’: Conditioned dependence for prosperity and even survival upon self-destructive and suicidal ways and means. A grand oxymoron. "Only by the most outrageous violation of ourselves do we come into conformity with a society bent on its own destruction." - R.D. Laing “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” - Krishnamurti Maybe we need to consider that we're so far down the wrong road, not just politically and governmentally, but in our fundamental beliefs and sense of reality—who and what we are— population levels, and overall way of life, that attempting to rescue society - government, economics, finance, education, business, etc - prior to a remarkable evolution in mass consciousness will be like trying to fix a watch with a pipe wrench. Preventing spiritual growth is a primary goal of the manipulators. What they fear most is widespread realization that the reality they've been selling and nurturing puts us on death row in a (now wireless) mind-prison—even when it has appeared to work properly and been entertaining. For success/prosperity to become universal safely, it would have to take on new meaning, centered upon harmony with Nature, not hoarding what is called wealth. In other words, society would have to become sane, or at least behave so. A simpler, slower, more harmonious and Earth-loving, less techno-addicted and dependent, less self-obsessed, more agriculturally based (organic), and cottage-industry way of life is strongly indicated. Sustainable being, not ‘sustainable development,’ a psyop of the manipulators to maintain Earth-sacrifice for wealth, power and control. (Sorry for the length)
Submitted by joseph_1 on Sat, 06/08/2019 - 03:01 Permalink
@ peter_gt Definitely the most intelligent, profound and illuminated comment that I have read in the comment section of Trendsresearch.com. If this levels of awareness and consciousness permeates the masses, the elite that have been manipulating our existence for millennia would be crushed like a bug under our boots.