Trend Alerts

TREND ALERT®: Presidential election will not affect economy. What will?

28 Sep 2016

 

TREND ALERT®:
Presidential election will not affect economy. What will?

KINGSTON, NY, 28 September 2016—From Asia to Europe to America, equity markets around the world on Monday swayed in anticipation of who would win The Presidential Reality Show® "debate" between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Across the business-media spectrum, market experts claimed that a positive financial future hinged upon a Clinton victory and were parroted as economic gospel:

US stocks close sharply lower as all eyes turn to debate; financials lag

U.S. equities closed sharply lower on Monday, with financials and health care lagging, as market watchers kept a close eye on a key OPEC meeting and looked ahead to a U.S. presidential debate.

"The market has basically priced in a Hillary Clinton victory," said Randy Warren, chief investment officer at Warren Financial Service. "If it's a big victory for Hillary, then no one will watch the next two debates and the market is going to go back to business. If it's a big victory for Trump, then no one will watch the next two debates and everyone is going to be freaking out."

"...Investors are waiting to see what happens at the presidential debate," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial. (CNBC, 26 September 2016)

On Tuesday, when the Dow regained most of what it lost on Monday, CNBC contributors attributed it to Clinton beating Trump. "It looks like Hillary Clinton earned the market's vote," said James Abate, chief investment officer at Centre Fund, adding she "is going to be good for the status quo."

The Real World

In trend forecasting, we observe three worlds: the political world, media world and real world. In the real world - comprising some 95 percent of the planet's population - the US Presidential Reality Show® spectacle of two contestants slinging insults, spouting prepared one-liners and providing no in-depth solutions to complex problems, the elections will mean little or next to nothing to their economies.

While the US media remain reality-show addicted, a European banking crisis brews. For example, yesterday, Deutsche Bank shares plunged to 1980s lows while Commerzbank announced it will cut 9,000 jobs and scrap its 2016 dividend. Also yesterday, the World Trade Organization sharply reduced its 2016 forecast for global trade volume from 2.8 percent to 1.7 percent... the slowest increase since The Panic of '08.

Further dampening the global economic outlook, The International Monetary Fund yesterday warned that advanced nations risked falling into a deflation trap triggered by "broad-based phenomenon" fed by slumping commodity prices and weak global demand (i.e., too much product, not enough buyers). 

On Monday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi admitted that ECB action was "not enough for delivering real and sustainable growth in the long term," and pushed governments to inject fiscal stimulus to boost the Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product, which is slogging along at 0.4 percent for the first half of the year.

Trend Forecast: We maintain our forecast that in this economic climate of high market risk and increasing geopolitical volatility, when gold prices stabilize above $1,400 per ounce they will spike toward $2,000. 

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