TRENDS THIS WEEK: Black Friday Blues: Warning! Danger Ahead

Posted 12/2/15

KINGSTON, NY, 2 December 2015 — The buildup to the Christmas shopping season that begins when deal hungry consumers rush to big box stores and retail giants in hopes of getting deep discounted deals, fell flat this year before it began.

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TRENDS THIS WEEK: Black Friday Blues: Warning! Danger Ahead

Posted

Trends Journal

TRENDS THIS WEEK:
Black Friday Blues: Warning! Danger Ahead

By Gerald Celente
Publisher, Trends Journal

KINGSTON, NY, 2 December 2015 — The buildup to the Christmas shopping season that begins when deal hungry consumers rush to big box stores and retail giants in hopes of getting deep discounted deals, fell flat this year before it began.

With business trending downward, their stocks slumping and hungry for profits, major retailers have been bombarding the public with 50- to 75-percent-off deals throughout the year, especially in the months leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday shopping spree kickoff. 

Thanksgiving/
Black Friday store sales aren’t what they used to be. And it’s not only because of the surge in on-line shopping. While web sales grew and mobile shoppers drove sales, according to First Data Corp, the average amount Americans spent in key product categories declined. Spending at big brick and mortar retailers fell 1.4 percent over the Thanksgiving weekend compared to last year, according to RetailNext.

And while the National Association of Retailers has been predicting a 3.7 percent rise in holiday spending this season, down from 4.1 percent last year, this is the first time in over a decade that the association did not provide sales data for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Although
receipts rung up over that weekend are becoming less reliable in forecasting the overall retail trend for the holiday season, especially with the growth of Internet shopping, the season’s final retail data will spell out the nation’s economic trend lines for both the year past and the year ahead.

Trend Forecast: When the final numbers are tabulated, overall holiday sales will trend lower for 2015 and the overall retail sector will grow weaker in 2016. Indeed, beyond the holiday season, from luxury brands, to mid-range and low-end product sales, there is a slow and steady slump across all retail sectors throughout most of the developed and emerging markets.

In the United States, for example, where consumer spending accounts for some 70 percent of the nation’s GDP, the downbeat reports from retailers throughout the year are clear trends of tepid growth followed by steady decline. With the labor force participation rate at 38-year lows and median household income below 1999 levels, medical costs are rising along with property and school taxes far faster than wages. And with some 51 percent of working Americans earning under $30,000 a year, there will be less discretionary income for non-essential retail products.

Trendpost to Profit: The shop-local, support-the-community businesses trend we identified well over a decade ago is alive and thriving. Cities and towns
with downtown shopping areas that create festive holiday celebrations will boost retail and restaurant traffic by attracting America’s mall-weary consumers that are starved for hometown experiences that ring true.


©MMXV The Trends Research Institute®