KINGSTON, NY 9 MAY 2018—As Trends Journal subscribers know, we have been forecasting a wild card event could trigger a series of economic developments capable of driving global markets from correction mode to crash territory.
And there is, as we have repeatedly forecast, no greater wild card than the Trump card. And the Trump card was played Tuesday when President Trump announced he would exit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, restoring crippling sanctions on Iran that were suspended under the 2015 JCPOA accord.
"We will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction," Trump said. "Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned."
Oil prices, which were down before his announcement, spiked on Wednesday, hitting the highest level since 2014.
Higher oil prices equals higher inflation. Already, the volatile equity markets have been on a down trend over concerns that higher inflation will push the Federal Reserve to aggressively increase interest rates. Thus, not only will equities be pushed lower as interest rates increase, retail sales will decrease as consumers, already holding over $13 trillion in debt, will be spending more on gas.
Considering strong U.S. oil output and the 1.8 million barrels-a-day of oil OPEC and non-OPEC producers have withheld from the markets, we thus forecast modest oil price increases as a result of the sanctions. What will sharply spike prices are increased prospects for a major Middle East War.
IT'S THE TRUMP WAR THAT MATTERS
Trump's decision amplifies the critical trend we have continually detailed: Washington and Israel have formed a deepening alliance with Saudi Arabia targeting Iran and its allies as a global threat.
We forecast as one of our Top Trends of 2018, "Market Shock, Mass Murder," that the U.S./Israel/Saudi alliance will intensify the build-up to war with Iran, escalate the Syrian War and launch attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which the U.S. considers a terrorist organization.
In fact, potential for a Lebanese conflict has increased following Sunday's elections, which have given Hezbollah and its coalition partners a parliamentary majority over U.S./Saudi-backed Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri Prime.
And doubling down on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's threat to "not allow Iran to entrench itself militarily in Syria," following Trump's announcement to exit the JCPOA nuclear deal, news broke that Israel fired missiles at an Iranian weapons facility in Syria that killed 15 troops.
TREND FORECAST: As we had forecast, the Trump stock market rally has ended. And global economies, particularly in Europe, are shifting downward, and emerging markets are experiencing sharp currency and stock market volatility.
Middle East War will crash equity markets worldwide. If measures are not taken to stop the march to war, oil prices will spiral toward $150 per barrel while also crashing the dollar, euro, yen, yuan and other fiat currencies of deeply indebted nations.
And gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, will see its value catapult into unchartered territory of $2,000 an ounce or more.