TREND ALERT®: Market turmoil to persist: Follow the money, follow gold

Posted 7/6/16

 

TREND ALERT®:Bigger than Brexit: Market mayhem. Will gold glow?

KINGSTON, NY, 6 July 2016—From geopolitics to socioeconomics, from environmental to technology, be it the …

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TREND ALERT®: Market turmoil to persist: Follow the money, follow gold

Posted

TREND ALERT®:
Market turmoil to persist: Follow the money, follow gold 

KINGSTON, NY, 6 July 2016—From geopolitics to socioeconomics, from environmental to technology, be it the body politic or personal health, as trend forecasters it is essential to have a clear understanding of where we are and the knowledge of how we got here to see where we are going.

Global equity markets are in turmoil. However, the business media’s view of market mayhem is a snapshot in time dating to the June 23 “Brexit” when the United Kingdom voted to exit the European Union.

Indeed, while Brexit triggered the current turmoil, our trends-eye view identifies the current market volatility in a Globalnomic® context far bigger than Brexit.

For example, just one year ago, Chinese equity markets were in crash mode. The Shanghai Index, up 150 percent in a year, plummeted some 40 percent by mid-July 2015. In just one day, it had its second-biggest fall in its history.

Following a summer that plunged Chinese markets into bear territory, global equity markets had their worst quarterly showing since 2011.

It got worse.

Not only was there no Santa Claus rally in the United States, extending its downtrend momentum, on the last trading day of 2015, the Dow closed out the year down 178 points, capping its worst yearly performance since the Panic of ‘08. 

Then, to ring in the New Year, the Dow closed down 276 points… its worst-start-of-the-year performance since 2001, while closing out the worst first week of a new year in Dow Jones history.

From China to Japan, from the UK to France, stocks sank some 20 percent from 2015 highs by month’s end. Overall, some $15 trillion in global equity values had been lost.

Back to Brexit

As for the Brexit fallout, while the majority of economists and financiers now forecast slower growth in the UK as a result of the vote, Merry Old England already was slipping into recession. Closing out the last quarter of 2015 with a Gross Domestic Product increase of just six-tenths of a percent, it slumped lower in 2016 with a GDP increase of just four-tenths of 1 percent… the slowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2012.

On a broader level, banking shares across the globe are hitting new lows and testing old ones. Last Thursday, for example, the International Monetary Fund crowned Deutsche Bank AG the riskiest financial institution in the world, warning that its failure could trigger a shock to the entire banking system. They also rated HSBC and Credit Suisse as possible contributors to systemic risk.

In Italy, desperate maneuvers by Eurozone officials and the Italian government are being considered to rescue its failing banking system, weighed down by high debt levels and bad loans.

Trend Forecast: We maintain our Panic of 2016 forecast for continued economic and equity-market turmoil. And, with gold at two-year highs, we also maintain our forecast that when prices stabilize above $1,400 per ounce, gold will spike toward $2,000 per ounce.


Market turmoil to persist: Follow the money, follow gold