TREND ALERT®: Brexit or bust: Market winners and losers

Posted 6/15/16


TREND ALERT®: Brexit or bust: Market winners and losers

KINGSTON, NY, 15 June 2016—Over the last few weeks, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and fellow Fed members bombarded …

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TREND ALERT®: Brexit or bust: Market winners and losers



Brexit or bust: Market winners and losers

KINGSTON, NY, 15 June 2016—Direct Democracy referendums, a staple in Switzerland - one of the wealthiest, most democratic, least violent, most market-oriented countries in the world - in which the public, not politicians, vote on high-profile issues... has gone British.

Next Thursday, United Kingdom citizens will vote whether to stay in or exit (Brexit) the European Union. In the run-up to the referendum, world equity markets swoon and sway with polls that fluctuate between "Remain" or "Leave."

With the latest TNS poll showing 47 percent of likely voters opting to leave vs. 40 percent wanting to stay, business media and financial pundits blame the prospects of a Brexit for rattling stock markets and pushing gold prices higher.

Are the markets overreacting?

Initially, should the "leave" vote win, we forecast the US dollar and gold prices will spike while equity markets, particularly those currently under downward pressure, will sink deeply lower.

In addition, while the UK is the world's fifth-largest economy and its gross domestic value represents some 5 percent of the world economy, should it leave the EU, we forecast, for the long term, it will be business as usual throughout most of the continent. Moreover, as nationalism sentiments rise, so too will growing prospects for increasing domestic consumption of "Made in UK" products as the nation and its people embrace one of our Top Trends of 2016, "Self-Sustainability."  

On the broader socioeconomic and political scale, with anti-immigration and anti-EU populism movements rapidly spreading throughout Europe, should British citizens vote to exit, we forecast similar Direct Democracy referendums igniting across the continent to leave the EU... swiftly leading to the dissolution of Brussels' central government control, elimination of the euro and a return to national currencies.

However, should the "remain" claim victory, while the populism anti-EU trend will steadily grow, it will not spontaneously combust a continent-wide revolt against euro zone and/or euro group control and currency.

Bigger than Britain

While the loudest word on The Street is the fear that if Britain votes to leave the EU, the bloc could slip into recession, the current trend line is bigger than a Brexit. Indeed, last Thursday, even European Central Bank President Mario Draghi widened fears of recession beyond the UK vote, warning that the "economic recovery in the euro area continues to be dampened by subdued growth prospects in emerging markets."

Whether emerging markets or developed ones, from China to Brazil, from the United States to Japan - imports, exports, GDP, jobs, retail sales, commodity prices, the Purchasing Managers' Index, the ISM Manufacturing Index, etc.- the numbers range from miserable to terrible as nations' economies across the globe stagnate, recede or depress.

Trend Forecast: We forecast continued global economic deterioration and high equity-market volatility. Also, with low investor expectations for central banks to re-ignite stagnant and/or declining economies despite current negative/zero/low interest-rate policy, we forecast gold will pierce $1,300 per ounce. Should gold move strongly above $1,400 per ounce, we forecast a sharp spike to $2,000.



©MMXVI The Trends Research Institute®