GOLD: Follow the trends
The Trends Journal has consistently and accurately forecast the price of gold based on global economic and equity market trends. Here are some examples from just this year to show how we were ahead of news and on top of the trend.
3 JANUARY 2019
"These worsening economic trend lines could compel the Federal Reserve to not only slow interest hikes, but even cut rates this year. While it would temporarily boost equities again it would lower the value of U.S. currency and weigh favorably on the price of the gold.
Thus, we maintain our forecast that gold remains the ultimate safe haven asset. We had forecast that prices would bottom out at around $1,200 per ounce. They have and now gold is flirting at $1,300 per ounce. When gold solidifies above $1,450 per ounce, we forecast a sharp spike toward $2,000 an ounce."
16 JANUARY 2019
"Exploding global debt, declining economic growth and geopolitical instability – especially in the Middle East and our forecast for the U.S., Brazil and other Lima Group nations to overthrow the government of Venezuela – will push gold prices higher.
Moreover, gold prices will stabilize above the $1,200 range as a matter of supply and demand. All the gold ever mined could fit in a 60-foot cube and discoveries of gold have dramatically tapered off over the last decade and no new discoveries were made since 2017.
Thus, we maintain our forecast that gold's downside is $1,200 per ounce, which has proven accurate, and that gold would have to break above $1,450 per ounce to leap back to the $2,000 range it neared in 2011."
31 January 2019
"With all signs pointing to central bank intervention to boost equity markets and economies with increased flows of cheap money, plus exploding global debt, declining economic growth and geo-political instability, we forecast gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, will trend higher.
Currently gold is hovering around $1,320 per ounce. We maintain our forecast that gold will have to break above $1,450 per ounce to leap back to the $2,000 range it neared in 2011."
6 FEBRUARY 2019
"As evidenced by the building social unrest in Europe, wars and riots throughout Africa, escalating Middle East tensions, the mounting South American migrant crisis and the brewing U.S.-led Venezuelan coup d'etat, there are any number of wild card triggers and black swan events that will crash equity markets and economies worldwide.
In an atmosphere of such instability, demand for gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, will dramatically increase."
6 MARCH 2019
"In the lead up to U.S. 2020 presidential elections, should the economy dramatically slow and/or markets sink, the Fed will aggressively lower interest rates.
Absent a black swan geopolitical/economic event, gold will be confined to the tight trading range of the past 6 years.
Real Estate markets will remain stable in the U.S. and many nations as central banks lower rates to boost demand.
On the equity market front, again, minus a wild card event, we forecast modest growth with occasional sharp downturns."
6 JUNE 2019
"In an effort to artificially stimulate equities and economies with monetary methadone, nations will in effect devalue their currencies, thus pushing investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold.
As we have long noted, gold must first pierce the $1,385 an ounce mark to hit the $1,450 break out point, which will then spike gold prices above their 2011 highs."